EMEP: On the course of the crisis and the international situation

The economic crisis with its sharp deterioration especially in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 -much sharper than that of the 1929 crisis-, relatively slowing down in the second quarter.
One of the characteristics of the recent crisis is the fact that it started in the US, the largest economy in the world, in the construction and manufacturing –especially metal, automotive and related industries- simultaneously with a crisis in the financial sector, overshadowing the former and profound enough to cause a total destruction, that it speedily joined up with the crisis burst out in the other advanced capitalist countries and has become a general crisis spreading over to dependent countries. This course of development has created the impression that the economic crisis had originated from the crisis in the financial sector in the US. Bourgeois-capitalist circles claim that this crisis is a product of the economic policies, especially wrong financial and monetary policies which led to increasing speculation, over-inflation and “bubbles” in the financial sector; and they try to disseminate these theses using every means available. This misinformation campaign is accompanied by the propaganda that economic crisis can be prevented and overcome by correct economic policies and tighter regulations in the financial sector. This propaganda is designed to conceal the fact that capitalist economic crises are inevitable stages in the process of capitalist development, that they are a product of capitalist mode of production driven by profit and the market, thus developing in an anarchic and uneven way, that they are the apex of the contradiction between the productive forces and the relations of production, and an exploding manifestation of this contradiction. It aims to whitewash the capitalist system and prevent the discontent and anger of the workers and labourers from targeting the capitalist system directly. Moreover, this and similar other propaganda are used to stop people understanding the real cause of the crisis, its magnitude and its destructive effects; and legitimize the economic policies and attacks used to shift the burden of the crisis onto the shoulders of the proletariat and the peoples.
The process of internationalisation of capital and the capitalist economy, what is called “globalisation” by the bourgeois-capitalist circles, and of the entwining of different branches of the economy has reached unprecedented levels, incomparable to the level in the mid-century let alone the beginning. The fact that any kind of development in one country or sector has increasing effects on the process of development of other countries and sectors is an inevitable result of the advancement of this process of internationalisation and entwining. The level of the effects, on the other hand, differs in accordance with the place of the countries and sectors concerned in the capitalist world economy. Therefore, the developments, especially in the financial sector, in the US economy the biggest power in the world capitalist economy with its 25% share, have affected and got affected by all countries and sectors. However, this recent crisis cannot be explained with the crisis in the US financial sector or the economic policies of the Bush government, which is said to have caused this crisis in the first place, nor can it be dealt with within the limited framework of how this crisis in the US economy is reflected in other countries.
Economic policies implemented by the ruling classes, their states and international institutions do have an effect on the course of economic development, but not a determining one. They cannot cancel the laws and dynamics of the economy, which are independent of human, will or turn around the course of development determined by these laws and dynamics. In fact, the opposite is true. Economic policies in general, and financial and monetary policies as part of them, are shaped in accordance with the interests of finance capital and the course of development of the economy rather than the arbitrary preferences of governments or international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank or EU.
What lies on the financial, industrial, agricultural, etc. basis of the recent crisis, as was the case with all the others in the past, is the fact that production grew faster than the markets; some produce remained unsold; stocks accumulated; new demand and order went down; production shrank; and markets got smaller. The latest financial crisis emerged and grew in these circumstances. What is considered to be the signs of financial crisis, namely excessive expansion of the credit markets, over-valuation in the stock market, inflating financial sector, in fashionable words, the emergence of “bubbles”, intensification of speculative activities in every field of the economy, etc. are not specific to the recent past of the development process of the capitalist economy; they also constitute an inevitable part of the growth periods when production and markets develop inharmoniously, with no apparent effects yet, when it seems business is in full spate. The process of emergence and development of the constituents of every industrial-commercial crisis that arise as a result of over-production –in fact, there is no excess production in terms of the needs of the oppressed and exploited masses who constitute the great majority of the population– is also a process of the emergence and development of the constituents of a financial crisis, as was the case with the latest crisis. This becomes more obvious at the monopolist stage of capitalism where industrial capital and bank capital intertwine, giving rise to finance capital and its domination. As was seen both in the 1929 crisis and the present one, every more or less powerful crisis generally begins with a financial crisis or first signs of the crisis emerge in this sector. However, this does not mean that it spreads evenly into every sector, financial, industrial, agricultural, commercial, etc. or eliminates the dynamics or processes specific to each sector.
Despite the fact that in the second half of 2007 the US economy entered a period of stagnation, that production and markets shrank as a result of over-production especially in the construction and automotive industry, that there emerged signs of a financial crisis in the US, Britain, France and many other countries, world industrial production continued to grow, increasing the stocks, and reached its highest point in April 2008. After that date industrial production began to fall mainly in the advanced capitalist countries, with monthly fluctuations and varying severity in different businesses, sectors and countries. Within a year from April 2008 world industrial production had a sharper fall than that of 1929. Its April 2009 level was 13% lower than that of the same month a year earlier. While May and June 2009 saw a 1.4% and 2.0% increase respectively, July’s 0% was 10% less than the level in April last year.
While from April 2008 total industrial production fell on the world scale and financial crisis deepened, capitalist world market contracted swiftly. World trade shrank by 22% this April, compared to the same month a year earlier. (According to IMF statements, “global trade” fell from 16 trillion dollars to 12.) It had a 2.5% increase this June –the biggest increase since July 2008- but dropped by 0.8% in July again, plummeting to a level 20% less than that of April 2008. According to the ever-changing IMF statements, world trade in 2009 will contract by 10% -the estimate was 12% previously. Although at differing levels, domestic markets also shrank in this period.
World industrial production and markets have declined swiftly; financial crisis has deepened worldwide, and last September brought many countries, especially the US and Britain, on the verge of financial collapse. While in New Zealand financial sector subsided, countries like US and Britain where the financial crisis was felt most gravely averted this collapse through state interventions and trillions of dollars subsidies into the sector. The number of collapsed banks in the US was 25 in 2008 –compared to 3 a year earlier. This number soared to 72 in the period January-September this year, which is expected to reach 90 at the end of the year, with next year bringing more bankruptcies. In the other advanced capitalist countries where financial crisis is not felt so profoundly, deterioration of the situation has been prevented by use of billions of dollars rescue packages. While some banks just managed to stand on their feet with the support of the government, many small and medium size banks either closed or were taken over by the biggest ones in the sector. One of the most significant effects of the crisis has been the centralisation and concentration in the financial sector gaining a new momentum.
In the stock markets the fall began in January 2008 and accelerated from April onwards. This year’s March-April results show a nearly 50% drop in the stock market compared to last April. Although the decline in the world industrial production and trade continued in the second quarter of this year with less speed, stock markets began to rise following the first few months of this year, partly because of the pumping of the trillions of dollars into the financial sector. However, stock market indexes are still 30% lower than their levels last April. Moreover, “bubbles” which would affect the developments in the other sectors as well as the financial sector are beginning to inflate again, accompanied by increasing speculative activities and elements of instability.
Unequal and uneven development is an absolute law of the process of capitalist development. Thus, the recent crisis, just like the previous ones, has shown an unequal and uneven development in terms of countries, sectors and businesses.
One of the characteristics of this crisis is the fact that it started in the advanced capitalist countries, that the financial crisis is combined with the industrial crisis, and that, as can be seen from the figures below, the drop in the total industrial output of these countries is far greater than that of the total world industrial production.
World’s largest economy, US, which had entered an economic stagnation in 2007, industrial production fell by 12.5% in April 2009, compared to the same month a year earlier. The 1.2% and 0.4% contraction in May and June this year was turned around by 1% and 0.8% increase respectively in July and August, mainly due to the 20.1% growth in the automotive production in July this year. Industrial production in August this year was 10.7% smaller compared to the same month a year earlier.
In Japan, world’s second largest economy –before the crisis– industrial production fell by nearly 35% in March this year compared to April 2008. Following this contraction Japanese production increased in March, April, May, June, July and August this year by 1.6%, 5.2%, 5.9%, 2.4%, 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. Nevertheless, industrial production is still 18% down compared to last year, accompanied by a falling growth rate since May.
Germany, world’s fifth largest economy, saw a 24% decrease in April in its industrial production compared to the same month a year earlier. For EU27 countries this fall stood at 19.3% in the same period.
Compared to a month earlier, Germany’s production increased by 5% in May and 1.1% in June, seeing a negative growth by 1% in July, and back to 1.5% increase in August. In the EU 27 countries the fall in production stopped and saw a 0.6% rise in May compared to a month earlier. This trend continued in June, July and August with 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. Despite this, however, Germany’s industrial production was down 18% and EU 27’s by 13.5% in August this year compared to the same month a year earlier.
Industrial production in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries fell in the January-July period this year by 15%. Russia’s August production stood at 12.7% below its level in the same month last year. Latin America’s three biggest economic powers Brazil, Mexico and Argentina saw a 9.9%, 6.5% and 9% decrease respectively in July this year compared to the same month a year earlier. The fall was 13.7% in South Africa.
The crisis, which started in the advanced capitalist countries, has spread to the dependent and underdeveloped countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and shaken their weak economies. It goes without saying that in the coming period, when big imperialist powers intensify their attacks to shift the burden of the crisis onto other countries, the destructive effects of the crisis will come in sight more dramatically.
Although growth rates have fallen generally, Asia as a continent (except for Japan) and India and China in particular, which are among the world’s five biggest economies and hold particular importance in terms of the course of development of the world capitalist economy, have shown a different path of development. With the swift fall of world industrial production and trade and the deepening of the financial crisis, the growth rate of these countries’ economies in general, and their industrial production in particular, have begun to fall. For instance, India’s industrial production fell by 0.4% in 2008 compared to a year earlier; yet December’s figures were 11.9 % lower than the same month in 2007. Despite the fall and fluctuations in its growth rate India’s economy and industry continued to grow. Its industrial production saw a 7% increase in July this year compared to the same period last year.
Chinese industry, which saw 16-18% annual growth before the crisis, grew only by 5.1% and 7.9% respectively in the first and second quarters of this year compared to the same period last year. The figure for August was 12.7% higher than the same month last year. In other words, despite the falling trend, Chinese economy and industry continued to grow in the past year.
China has entered the recent crisis with, among other things, a high growth rate, a large foreign exchange reserve, a trade surplus and a relatively more stable and sound financial sector (the biggest banks in China are state owned) partly because of the widespread implementations of state capitalism. This provided China with greater possibilities in terms of intervention in the economy. In November last year, Chinese government launched a programme similar to the one implemented in many capitalist countries, including the Hitler Germany, during the 1929 crisis to stimulate the economy. This state-financed programme costs 586 billion dollars and focuses on infrastructural investments – construction of railways, bridges, airports, motorways, ports, etc. This was followed by the 1.1 trillion dollar credit package initiated by the banks in the first half of this year. The incentives amounting to 1,686 billion dollars as well as the increase in Japan’s industrial production since March and the slowing down of the contraction of the world capitalist economy in the second quarter of this year have been among the factors that helped China carry on with its growth, though in falling rates compared to past years. However, as time goes by it is inevitable that the positive effects of these incentives will fade away while the negative ones will become more prominent. Investments and production capacities especially in the cement and iron-steel industries have risen more than the expansion in the domestic market created by the state-financed infrastructural investments, causing the idle capacity to increase rather than decrease. In recent months, while the signs of an over-production-originated-crisis in these sectors have become more prominent, in addition to the growth of the state-financed infrastructure investments, “bubbles” and “wealth bubbles” have got bigger in many sectors, mainly real estate and stock market, as a result of the 1.1 trillion dollar expansion in the Chinese credit markets. Thus, all indicators show that China cannot maintain for long the growth it saw in the first half of this year unless world economy goes into a new period of growth.
It is a rule of capitalist mode of production and extended reproduction that primary sector producing the means of production grow more and faster than the secondary sector producing the goods of consumption. In the ordinary process of development of the capitalist economy –leaving aside unusual circumstances such as wars and natural disasters- it is the primary sector where over-production and the following decline in production shows itself before any others and where this decline is most severe. The recent crisis followed the same path where the fall in the primary sector producing the means of production has been higher than the secondary sector. It is hard to get hold of absolute data showing this particular decline as statistics are not based on this differentiation. Although not exactly the same thing, there are statistics on energy, durable and nondurable consumer goods, capital goods and semi-finished goods, making it possible to draw approximate conclusions about the trend of development of the primary and secondary sectors of production.
For example, in the EU27 countries, while total industrial production fell by 19.4% this April compared to the same month last year, the decline in the production of semi-finished and capital goods were 25.7% and 25.5% respectively in the same period. August saw a fall of 13.5%, 18% and 19.7% respectively, while the production of durable and non-durable consumer goods fell by 16.4% and 3% respectively compared to the same month last year. Similarly, in the US, the decline of industrial production in June this year stood at 7.9% for consumer goods, 17.8% for business equipment and 15.8% for materials, compared to the same month a year earlier.
It becomes more striking when the trend of the production of iron and steel is dealt together with the trend of total industrial production. According to the data from the World Steel Association, world crude steel production fell by 21.3%, twice the rate of industrial production, in the January-June period this year compared to the same period a year earlier.  In the same period, while crude steel production rose by 1.2% in China and 1.3% in India, it plummeted by 40.7% in Japan, 30.2% in Russia, 51.8% in the USA, 17.3% in South Korea, 43.5% in Germany, 38.8% in Ukraine, 39.5% in Brazil, 42.8% in Italy and 17.3% in Turkey. In August, amid efforts to raise expectations for economic recovery, world steel production fell by 5.5%, bringing the decline to 18.1% in the first eight months of the year.
Although it has been 1.5 years since the crisis began on a world scale, the growth rate of the primary sector producing the means of production, especially in the advanced capitalist countries, has been negative and much lower than that of the secondary sector. If this is the situation could it be said that industry is coming out of the crisis and entering a new period of growth? Of course, it could not.
At the monopolist stage of capitalism crises are not the only but one of the phases of the process of capitalist development, although they occur in shorter periods, last longer and have more destructive effects on the productive forces. Unless it is done away with by the social revolution of the proletariat, capitalism can get out of this crisis as well ruining the productive forces and causing many-sided social destruction, then going through the other phases of the process of capitalist development towards a new crisis. Nevertheless, existing figures do not yet indicate a new period of growth for the capitalist world economy. As can be seen from the trend of the 1929 and other crises, the phases of a crisis do not go on a straight line but rather as a process with fluctuations and unequal and uneven development in every sector. This is also how the recent crisis is shaping up.
As a result of it becoming certain that the capitalist world economy had entered into a disastrous crisis; the neo-liberal blabbering and the hitherto pursued economic policies, particularly, monetary policies, were set aside. In order to prevent the crisis deepening and it resulting with total wreckage and minimise the subversive consequences that it might have for the capitalist system and the hegemony and interest of finance capital, the states had intervened in the economy via making use of the health and unemployment insurance and the funds of the departments in charge of the elderly and unemployed and all other means at its service. Strict monetary policies and structural budget balances, which was the indispensible argument used for turning down the basic demands of the working class and labourers, were laid aside. As well as pouring millions of dollars into the coffers of the banks and, as can be seen with the examples of GM, Ford and Opel, monopolies the state had also taken over the weak credits/ investments and other financial damages. The state did not stop here as it also took over financial institutions and monopolies in calamitous conditions and unleashed “financial stimulus packages”.
Although such state interventions didn’t determine the form in which the crisis had progressed, they had influenced it. Particularly in the US and UK such interventions had prevented the financial sector from a total collapse. Notably in the developed capitalist countries and in many other countries, the drop in the rate of economic contraction and contraction in industrial production during the second quarter of this economic year (e.g. in Japan within the last few months there has been a continuing drop in the rate of contraction) as well as being due to the sharp drops in the rate of production and rise in destocking—which is one of the core motivations—have also been due to the trillions of dollars spent by the state to boost the domestic market and production. (The following should be immediately noted: if we were to live China aside, the stimulus packages designed to boost domestic production and markets do only account for only a small segment of the latterly mentioned state expenditure. In countries like the US and UK where the financial crisis has been experienced in a disastrous form, the state has largely devoted its financial capabilities to the financial sector.) Although for a short period of time, in the countries and sectors, which have benefited from such expenditures, there has been a drop in the rate of contraction in the market and production. It has even at times been one of the factors for short-lived resurgence. Notably in Germany and in other countries, initiatives such the “scrappage scheme” and low tax rates for car purchase have been implemented in order to create a resurge or boost in the automotive industry and market. For example, in Germany as an outcome of the “scrappage scheme”, which was a scheme worth 5 million Euros, 200 thousand vehicles have been made scrapped or, in other words, the latterly stated amount of cars have been scrapped prior to their scrap due date, in order to be able destock in the automotive industry and create a boost in the automotive market and production. The cost of such interventionist state policies had been paid not by the monopolies but by the workers. The impermanent nature of such packages was laid bare a month after 2nd September, which was the end-date of the scrappage scheme; this is because vehicle sales had been reduced by half when compared to a month before the end-date of the scheme.
According to figures announced by the IMF the total cost of the interventions vis-à-vis the crisis in G20 member countries is 10.5 trillion dollars. Last year the biggest spenders have been the U.S. and U.K. From the beginning date of the crisis till September this year, the cost of the crisis for the U.S has been 13 trillion dollars. The Budget deficit of the US has trebled and reached 1.5 trillion dollars. The increasing budget deficit of firstly and foremostly the US and other developed capitalist countries has reached to 10% of their GDP. In dependent countries the rate has surpassed 10%. The mixture of a) drop in the rate of production, b) economic contraction and contraction in the markets and c) the rise in the circulation of money had, alongside many other things, resulted in the following: concentration in speculative activities and the development of the “bubbles and froth”; a drop in the value of notably the dollar and money; a rise in the anticipation of inflation; a blow to the status of dollar as the international currency; and creation of destabilising features for notably the financial sector and all sectors of the economy. The drop in the value the dollar and most of the currencies has constituted one of the reasons for the following developments: the rise in the stock exchange; the creation of new “froths”; the tendency of countries like, China, which is continuing to grow, and Japan monopolies, which in the last few month are experiencing a rise in the dropping rate of industrial production, to increase capital stocks; and extreme overvaluation.
Due to the dollar depreciating in value against gold and many of the other currencies, most of the currencies have depreciated in value against gold. The value of one ounce of gold has, when compared with pre-crisis figures, quadrupled and surpassed 1000 dollars. Iran has shifted its currency reserves into Euros and now trades oil in Euros. Other countries have shifted their currency reserves into Euros too. Notably China and Russia and most of the countries have entered into agreements, which legitimise trading in their own currencies. Thus the financial and monetary system that gave the US the upper-hand and that made dollar the international currency has incurred severe injuries. Discussions vis-à-vis the dollar being replaced by a new international currency has intensified and it is openly discussed. Chinese authorities have explicitly declared such views. Thus the capitalist world economy is being drifted into a chaotic world were contradictions are deepening, ambiguities are growing and a monetary crisis is developing.
In conjunction to it being true that there are factors that differentiate each and every country, it also true that all of the facts demonstrate that the viability of having further fiscal stimulus packages that aim to boost the economy or, in more accurate terms, the feasibility of having stimulus packages that postpone and deepen the destructive consequences of crisis on the economy, is highly minimal. In the last communiqué of the G20 and IMF-World Bank it has been explicitly stated that budget deficits and the amount of money in the market have long surpassed the critical limit or stage and, therefore, the necessity of minimising the budget deficit and taking the necessary measures is indubitable. But it has also been stated that such measures should be taken and/or practiced by putting into consideration the fact that the world economy is going through a critical period and that the economic and financial balance and development of each country is different. And demand from countries like China, which hold large sums of foreign currency reserves and that relatively speaking have a better budgetary balance, to play a more responsible and constructive role vis-à-vis world economy. Or else sharp drop could again materialise.
In order to limit the damaging results of the crisis on the interests of imperialist capitalist system and the finance capital and to burden other countries’ citizens as well as their own workers; attempts by well known international financial groups and imperialist countries to act in a coordinated way and to develop the necessary tools of coordination have become more intense in recent months. IMF and World Bank meetings were held after the G20 meeting. It was decided during these meetings that the IMF and World Bank financial capabilities be increased and used more effectively. In the coming periods other countries will be pressured into following or toeing economic policies by the imperialist powers, which will wide open the doors to the exploitation and the plunder of their markets and all natural resources by international finance capital.
The crisis has sharpened the ongoing struggle for control of markets and raw materials between imperialist monopolies and countries. Big imperialist countries have, while intensifying their pressure on other countries to abolish any obstacle standing in the way of goods and capital movement, implemented practices that protect their economies and particularly their national markets and are trying hard to penetrate and take over their rivals’ markets and spheres of influence. USA increased customs duties on iron-steel sectors and the rubber and subsidiary car industries. As it is demonstrated clearly in France, financial backing was conditional on investment within the country. Directly and indirectly, all doping and quota practices have been wide spread. In the last year, the applications made to World Trade Organisation have increased to prevent such measures. As a result of the crisis, thought not permanently, the weight of certain imperialist countries and international capital groups in the world economy have changed. Although the US and its allies are attempting to block it, China, in order to secure or meet her constantly growing energy and raw material demand, is intensifying its attempts to enter into new markets. The battle to control energy reserves and transit route has gained more importance. As it can be seen with countries like Russia, Brazil, Peru and Venezuela, China has signed new agreements with countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Similar agreements have also been made by Russia and India. In relation with also the changing forces of power, the conflicts amongst imperialist are going to intensify in the coming period.
As a result of the contraction in industrial production and the contraction in markets, in all countries workers are being made redundant and even as a result of practices such as “short working day” there’s a growing army of unemployed people. According to the announcements made by ILO, whilst in 2007 the number of unemployed people was 180.2 million in the end of last it raised to 188.6 million. In exemplar capitalist welfare states the rate of unemployment is reaching 10%, in countries like Spain it is 18% and in Belgium it is 12%. The numbers of people who, due to losing hope of finding a new job, are not applying to job or worker finding institutions are rising and thus the official facts do not reflect the true rate of unemployment. In dependent and backward countries where unemployment had been high, the army of unemployed have grown and unemployment has reached 20%. For example, in Turkey whereas the official statistics state that the rate of unemployment is 13% the real rate of unemployment is 20%. Unemployment amongst the youth and women is above average. The rate of youth unemployment in the US is 17.8% and in the EU it has gone up to 19.7%. In Turkey the most optimistic of rates stands at %25.
In 2009, the number of people who do not have access to most minimum level of nutrients has risen to 1 billion and 20 million. Whilst 10-15% of the world population live under starvation, 30% of the world population do not even have access to the most basic of nourishments and each 24 million children die due to starvation.
In all countries, the living conditions of the exploited and oppressed people have worsened; the process of absolute poverty has advanced; democratic and right and liberties have been curtailed; attempts to crash the working classes and labourers movement and weaken and disperse its organisation have intensified.
The fact that, on the one hand, millions have been transferred to notably financial institutions and other monopolies, and, on the other hand, the increase in workers being made redundant; the drop in real wage prices; the advancing process of poverty and (particularly in dependent Asian, African and Latin America countries) the growth in mass of unemployed, poor and starving people; has angered and developed the tendency to struggle amongst the working class people and other segments of labouring classes. Although there is a variance in the nature and form it takes, the struggle of the working class and the struggle of the people has advanced. As it can be seen in France and North Korea with the workers who have struggled against redundancy and factory closure, factory occupation have developed as a new form of struggle. In nearly all countries strikes and demonstration have become widespread. As can be seen in France, Italy, Greece, Honduras, Haiti, Volta and lately in Romania the struggle of, firstly and foremostly, the working classes and other labouring people led to general strikes and resistance. In most of the countries the “rebellion of the starved” was on the agenda.
Firstly and foremostly the IMF and World Bank authorities, the representatives and ideologues of finance capital have conspicuously made the following warnings: even if the economy recovers unemployment and poverty is going to rise, and if the necessary measures are not taken starvation rebellion and wars will materialise.
The rise in unemployment and the drop in prices are inevitably going to lead to the contraction in the consumer goods market and thus the development of a crisis in field of agriculture.  In the coming period the crisis will take its toll (in especially the dependent and backward countries) on the agricultural sector and on the peasantry. And the poverty of, firstly the agricultural proletariat and poor peasants will increase, so the army of unemployed and starved people will grow. This 59 million people will be added to the army of unemployed. The amount of people starving will go up by 100 million.
All this will be accompanied by intensified attacks designed to make the working class and oppressed peoples take the load of the effects of the crisis and of fierce competition, and pay the bill for the trillions of dollars given to the banks and the monopolies. With the excuse of balancing the budget, trade and payments, more repression will be needed to cut back the spending for public services such as health and education, bring down the wages, and subordinate the advanced but small countries as well as dependent and underdeveloped ones. Therefore, the forthcoming period will see heightened discontent, anger and tendency to fight among the exploited and oppressed masses as well as increased economic, political and social attacks.
In concluding our analysis on the development of the contemporary crisis of the imperialist capitalist system, it is worth mentioning that we are not yet out of the crisis and there is a conglomeration of factors, which can deepen it. The bourgeoisie, monopolies and imperialist forces are not refraining from taking every measure to make sure that the burden of the crisis is shifted onto the working class and labourers. In the service of the monopolies States have injected billions of dollars and Euros to save the profits of the capitalists, banks and large corporations, turning a blind eye to societal needs and at the expense of worsening the living and working conditions of the masses. Talking of “getting out of the crisis” and “recovery” what capitalists actually mean is the “betterment” in the conditions for the maximum profit, capitalist exploitation and imperialist plunder.
The working class and peoples, who are conscious of the problem, see the system as the cause of the problem and are against it. The reformist measures designed under the banner of “moralising the system” are premeditated with the aim of soothing and diverting the anger of the masses and blocking the progress of social and political protests against the system, which sows war and poverty. However, it can be clearly said that the working class movement all over the world will sharpen. 
Our Party and organisations call upon the labourers and peoples to elevate their struggles and reject to pay for the cost of the crisis, organising protests, demonstrations and strikes. We once again assert the right of the working class and the peoples to raise the struggle by any means possible against the violence of the bourgeoisie and of the state in its service. As a response to attempts to divide the workers and agitate one set of people against another, we call upon the working and labouring masses to enhance their unity and international solidarity.
The system will not be brought down on its own. The continuation and deepening of the crisis will increase poverty, strengthen the chain of imperialist dominance and sharpen all of the conflicts of the system. The contradictions among the imperialist powers fighting for the re-division of the world will become more concrete for the people of the world in the form of a threat of war.
Revolutionary action, which will put an end to capitalist exploitation and imperialist tyranny, is the only way out for the masses; and socialism is the sole alternative to capitalism.